The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 08/24/15 to 08/28/15

The Windermere Economist

What I Saw Last Week

The NAHB Housing Market Index met my expectations by rising one point to 61 and is now at its highest level in 10-years.

HMI1HMI2The fact the builder confidence has been in the low 60’s for three straight month’s shows that single-family housing is making slow but steady progress. The report is consistent with my forecast for a gradual strengthening of the single-family housing sector through the rest of the year.

U.S. Building Permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.119 million, which was 16.3% below the revised June rate of 1.337 million (from 1.343M). I had forecast a drop to an annual rate of 1.257M.

PermitsThe big surprise here was that single-family permits dipped 1.9% to 679,000. To make matters worse, there was an expiration of a tax break for multi-family developers in New York, which put a serious drag on…

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